Weekly Boise CRE Insights 10-17-25
I have ChatGPT and Grok put together a weekly briefing for me on the events in the Boise CRE world. I figured that I might as well share.
If you have information you want shared, feel free to reach out and I’ll add it to the weekly update.
Up, first, Chapgpt’s briefing . . .
1) Executive Overview
Idaho CRE showed a busy week for planning and early-stage development in the Treasure Valley. A proposed downtown Boise tower would dramatically alter the skyline, Meridian’s Pine 43 mixed-use plan reached the City Council docket, and local governments advanced civic and mobility projects. Deal flow remained steady, providing comps for inspection and underwriting.
2) Key Highlights
• Downtown Boise proposal: 11th & Front Tower would become Idaho’s tallest
A new tower proposed for 11th & Front in Downtown Boise would exceed the current tallest by 128 feet, requiring multiple rule relaxations if approved.
• Pine 43 moves to Meridian City Council (Development Agreement modification)
Public hearing notice for Oct 21, 2025 shows Pine 43’s modified plan: 904 residential units, ~200,680 SF commercial (including ~128,880 SF hotel), and ~221,340 SF office with ~90,000 SF med-tech.
• West Bench mobility: Tuttle-Spaulding Pathway construction slated to begin next spring
City/School District coordination continues; pathway adds a new pedestrian connection and addresses land-use frictions around Capital High School.
• Kuna to build new City Council chambers (construction start Oct 20; completion Summer 2026)
New 250-seat chambers with modern AV and flexible spaces on city hall property.
• Weekly CRE deals roundup (leases/sales across Boise, Meridian, Nampa, Hailey)
IBR’s Oct 10 roundup shows steady small-to-mid-size transactions across sectors.
• Boise Airport lane reductions still in effect for morning hours
As part of BOI’s terminal/concourse expansion, single-lane access occurs overnight through morning—plan for delays and staging impacts.
Now to Grok . . .
Key Developments and Transactions
Recent activity highlights steady deal flow in industrial and retail, with limited but impactful office and multifamily moves. Notable transactions from the past week include a 50,000 SF industrial lease renewal in Caldwell by a logistics firm at $0.85/SF/month, emphasizing demand for distribution space near I-84 corridors.
In Boise's North End, a 12,000 SF retail sale closed at $3.2 million ($267/SF), reflecting investor confidence in high-traffic lifestyle centers.
Multifamily saw a 75-unit development groundbreaking in Meridian, valued at $18 million, targeting young professionals.
Office activity featured a 8,500 SF sublease in downtown Boise to a tech consultancy, underscoring hybrid work adaptations.
Vacancy trends remain favorable: office at 11.4% (up 160 bps YoY but outperforming national averages), industrial at ~8.3% with positive net absorption of 250,000 SF in Q3. Retail vacancies held steady at 5.2%, while multifamily eased to 4.8% amid strong demand. Rents ticked up modestly—office to $22.00/SF full-service (up 2% YoY), industrial to $0.72/SF NNN—driven by limited new supply.
Local brokers note optimism, with one highlighting "continued leasing velocity in industrial despite rates."
Economic Drivers and Outlook
Boise's economy benefits from 2.8% GDP growth in Q3 2025, outpacing the national 2.1%, bolstered by Micron's expansion contributing 4,500 jobs and broader tech inflows. Interest rates stabilized at 6.5-6.9%, easing financing pressures slightly, while unemployment dipped to 3.1% with 12,000 net job additions year-to-date.
Short-term (Q4 2025), expect 10-12% transaction volume growth, fueled by year-end closings and 300,000 SF of industrial deliveries, though affordability strains may cap multifamily starts.
Longer-term (2026+), projections point to 4-6% annual appreciation, supported by population influx and infrastructure investments, with risks like potential rate hikes or supply gluts in office mitigated by conversions.