Boise Commercial Real Estate Update - 11/14/25
Stability, Selective Growth, and the Rising Importance of Due Diligence
By Calibre Commercial Inspections — Week Ending November 14, 2025
Idaho’s commercial real estate market is closing out mid-November with a blend of stability, selective expansion, and a noticeable shift toward more disciplined underwriting. While national headlines have focused on falling consumer confidence following the 43-day federal government shutdown, the Idaho market continues to demonstrate resilience—supported by population growth, strong labor fundamentals, and active industrial and retail demand across the state. Yet beneath the surface, the environment is becoming more complex, making comprehensive physical due diligence more critical than ever.
As lenders tighten standards, insurance premiums rise, and construction costs remain elevated, investors and owner-users are seeking clarity on building performance, capital expenditure timing, and long-term operating risks. This is the environment where Calibre Commercial Inspections provides true value: translating market uncertainty into actionable, evidence-based insights that protect capital and improve decision-making.
The Big Picture: Idaho Outperforms, But Risks Are Rising
Despite macroeconomic turbulence, Idaho continues to stand out among fast-growing states. Population has exceeded 2 million residents, job creation remains positive—though measured—and unemployment in the Boise metro holds near 3.2%, one of the lowest rates in the region. These fundamentals have supported occupier demand across most property types, particularly industrial, retail, and multifamily.
That said, several emerging headwinds are reshaping the way investors and lenders evaluate properties:
National consumer confidence has fallen sharply, a lagging effect from the recent shutdown.
Insurance costs have jumped 17% statewide, and up to 25% in wildfire-prone areas.
Construction costs remain 3.8% higher year-over-year, especially for fire-resilient materials.
CMBS delinquencies nationally are nearing 7.5%, the highest in almost a decade.
More than $2 trillion in CRE debt will mature by 2027, driving underwriting discipline and early refinance planning.
For Idaho investors, these dynamics mean solid fundamentals—but a lower margin for error.
Industrial: Idaho’s High-Performing Workhorse
Industrial continues to be Idaho’s most stable asset class, anchored by distribution, logistics, and nearshoring-related demand along the I-84 corridor.
Boise’s industrial vacancy stands between 8.6–8.9%, elevated by new supply but still healthy.
Q3 absorption reached 215,000 SF, signaling real tenant demand.
Rents remain stable at $0.85/SF, and Class A industrial cap rates hover near 6%.
Developers such as Adler Industrial continue to expand, including a newly listed 32,300 SF facility in Boise, highlighting continued confidence.
Southern Idaho—particularly Jerome, Twin Falls, and Pocatello—remains exceptionally strong. Meanwhile, Post Falls shows the inverse, with a 31% vacancy rate and tenant-favorable pricing.
The trend is clear: industrial in southern Idaho remains in growth mode, while northern submarkets are undergoing a recalibration.
Office: A Market in Transition
Idaho’s office sector performs better than most of the country, but signs of bifurcation are increasing:
Boise’s overall vacancy has climbed to 11.4%, still far below national averages.
Downtown Class A space is leasing, with activity up 15% quarter-over-quarter.
Suburban Class B/C office faces significant pressure with vacancies approaching 24%.
Speculative office construction statewide has paused entirely.
Many owners are exploring conversions or substantial repositioning, but construction costs remain a barrier. For investors, understanding building systems, code constraints, and existing deferred maintenance is crucial before pursuing value-add strategies.
Retail & Mixed-Use: A Quiet Strength
Retail continues to defy expectations—particularly neighborhood-serving and grocery-anchored centers.
Boise and Meridian grocery-anchored vacancy is 3.9%, near record lows.
Lease rates climbed 4.2% YOY.
Multiple new leases across Boise, Nampa, Meridian, and Caldwell point to steady tenant expansion.
Mixed-use districts in Southwest Boise, Star, and downtown cores are gaining momentum as zoning reforms open the door to denser horizontal and vertical development.
Experiential retail also remains strong, highlighted by the $28 million Topgolf sale in Meridian, reinforcing investor appetite for well-located specialty assets.
Multifamily: Strong Fundamentals, Refi Pressure Rising
Multifamily remains a pillar of Idaho’s investment landscape:
Boise occupancy is 94.6%.
Effective rents increased 4.7% to $1,595/month.
Construction continues with 1,848 units underway (4.4% inventory growth).
However, starts have slowed 40% YOY, a byproduct of lending constraints, insurance escalations, and increased pre-development risk. The biggest risk centers on refinancing: many 2021–2022 vintage loans are rolling into a higher-rate environment, elevating the importance of asset-condition documentation.
Hospitality: Recovery With Regional Variance
Hospitality continues to recover, with Boise’s ADR up 6.8% and occupancy near 68%. Sun Valley’s luxury segment is outperforming the broader market. However, wildfire-affected areas—particularly in eastern Idaho—are experiencing slower Q3 performance.
McCall is seeing renewed mixed-use development interest, with downtown projects blending residential, hospitality, and commercial uses. City leadership is proactively managing growth through comprehensive planning updates. Land availability and zoning-friendly policies for mixed-use projects are attracting developers. Takeaway: McCall presents opportunities in hospitality and mixed-use, but carry higher execution risk due to seasonal demand and design complexity.
Regional Highlights: A Market of Micro-Stories
Boise / Meridian
Boise's office market remains an outlier nationally, with vacancy at 6–7%—one-third the national average. Retail has posted one of its strongest absorption quarters on record. Industrial activity is robust, with large Micron-related logistics users and traditional distributors actively seeking space. However, office sales volumes remain depressed ($24.8M in Q2, well below historical average), suggesting pricing friction between sellers and buyers. Takeaway: Boise is not a distressed market, but pricing expectations are adjusting downward.
Nampa / Caldwell
Industrial leasing dominates, with major transactions including a 56,936 SF logistics operation (Caldwell) and 10,000 SF distribution (Nampa). Both markets benefit from I-84 corridor positioning and proximity to Micron's operations. Build-ready commercial land (e.g., 7.93 acres on Karcher Road, C-2 zoned) is attracting retail and office development. Takeaway: Secondary markets are experiencing steady, lower-risk growth; good entry points for value-add investors.
Idaho Falls / Pocatello / Twin Falls
These regions offer lower risk and lower growth. Twin Falls is experiencing steady residential development, which should support incremental commercial demand. Pocatello's downtown core is seeing selective renovation activity. Both markets favor income-focused, patient capital with realistic return expectations (not value-add or speculative plays).
Coeur d’Alene / Post Falls
Retail vacancy dropped to 2.1%, lease rates above $28/SF.
A 29,000 SF temple project anchors an 11-acre mixed-use expansion.
Industrial remains soft, with high vacancy and tenant leverage.
Eastern Oregon
Ontario retail vacancy holding at 3.9%.
Where Calibre’s Clients Should Focus: The Due Diligence Imperative
In a market where lenders are tightening standards and investors are recalibrating risk, accurate building intelligence has never mattered more.
Calibre Commercial Inspections is seeing a measurable increase in requests for:
ASTM E2018 Property Condition Assessments
Cost-to-Cure forecasting for capital planning
Phase 1 Environmental Site Assessments
ADA accessibility studies for entitlements and refinancing
Fire-resiliency evaluations and roofing lifecycle analysis
Drainage, paving, and moisture-management assessments
HVAC age, serviceability, and replacement-cost modeling
These factors increasingly influence:
Loan approval timelines
Reserve requirements
Purchase price negotiation
Insurance underwriting
Asset repositioning strategies
Clients who invest early in detailed due diligence are consistently seeing fewer post-signing surprises, smoother closings, and stronger negotiation leverage.
Conclusion: Prepared Investors Will Win the Next Phase of Idaho CRE
Idaho’s CRE market continues to offer exceptional long-term potential. Industrial demand remains strong, retail is stable, and multifamily fundamentals support continued investor interest. But the days of “easy underwriting” are over. High insurance costs, shifting lending conditions, and the upcoming 2027 debt maturity wall are forcing the market toward greater transparency and operational discipline.
For investors, lenders, and owner-users, the next chapter belongs to those who pair strategic market insight with rigorous physical due diligence.
At Calibre Commercial Inspections, we help clients navigate this complexity with the guidance, detail, and integrity required to make confident, well-informed decisions. Whether you’re evaluating an acquisition, preparing a property for refinancing, or validating reserves for an existing portfolio, we’re here to ensure your next move is grounded in clarity and built on solid footing.
Due Diligence Done Right.®